The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that artificial intelligence (AI) could increase Nigeria’s economic output by up to four per cent over the next decade if governments across sub-Saharan Africa invest in digital infrastructure, skills development and effective governance.
The projection was contained in the IMF’s latest report, Unlocking the Potential: AI in Sub-Saharan Africa, authored by officials of the Fund’s African Department. According to the report, AI’s contribution to the region’s economy would remain minimal under current conditions, adding only about 0.2 per cent to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over the next 10 years.
The IMF, however, noted that with improved electricity supply, expanded broadband access, stronger digital infrastructure and enhanced AI literacy, economic gains could rise significantly.
It explained that such growth would be crucial for Nigeria and other African countries as they strive to create quality jobs for their rapidly expanding populations.
The Fund stressed that AI’s greatest potential in Africa lies not in replacing workers but in improving productivity across key sectors, particularly agriculture and the informal economy.
According to the report, AI-powered tools can help small businesses improve inventory management, assist farmers in boosting crop yields and support medium-sized enterprises to become more competitive in local and international markets.
The IMF warned that Africa risks falling further behind the rest of the world if governments fail to accelerate AI adoption, noting that the region currently trails every other part of the globe in deploying artificial intelligence technologies.
It highlighted Nigeria as one of the countries already recording encouraging results through AI-driven initiatives, citing pilot programmes where chatbot technology has improved mathematics learning among students.
The report also referenced agricultural projects in Nigeria, Ghana, Rwanda and Uganda, where digital advisory platforms have helped farmers improve productivity through better planting decisions, fertilizer application, pest management and climate adaptation.
Beyond agriculture, the IMF said AI has the potential to transform healthcare, education and public finance. It noted that AI can support medical personnel in diagnosis, patient management and follow-up care, while governments such as Kenya and South Africa are already using AI-driven data analytics to strengthen tax compliance and increase revenue generation.
To maximise AI’s economic benefits, the IMF urged African governments to prioritise investments in reliable electricity, affordable broadband, digital infrastructure and workforce development, while also establishing clear regulatory frameworks to build public confidence in AI technologies.
The Fund concluded that artificial intelligence should be viewed as a key driver of Africa’s long-term economic development, stressing that the continent’s future competitiveness will depend largely on how effectively governments, educational institutions, businesses and farmers embrace the technology over the coming decade.
