The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has disclosed that poverty in Nigeria has risen to 63 per cent of the population, despite significant improvements in the country’s macroeconomic stability under the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
The revelation was contained in the IMF’s 2026 Article IV Consultation Report and concluding statement issued at the end of its mission to Nigeria. While commending the Federal Government for implementing bold economic reforms over the past three years, the Fund painted a grim picture of the hardship confronting millions of Nigerians.
According to the report, an estimated 27 million Nigerians experienced food insecurity during the latter part of 2025, underscoring the widening gap between economic reforms and the welfare of ordinary citizens.
Reacting to the report, the Federal Government welcomed the IMF’s assessment, describing it as an independent endorsement of its economic policies. It stated that the findings validated the administration’s efforts to strengthen macroeconomic stability, rebuild investor confidence and establish a foundation for long-term economic growth.
The IMF noted that reforms including the removal of fuel subsidies, liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, the cessation of deficit monetisation and renewed fiscal discipline had enhanced Nigeria’s economic resilience.
The report highlighted improvements in the country’s external reserves, which rose to 46 billion dollars in 2025 from 40 billion dollars recorded at the end of 2024. Net international reserves also increased substantially from 23 billion dollars to 35 billion dollars during the same period. In addition, the premium between official and parallel foreign exchange markets remained below five per cent, while sovereign spreads stayed broadly stable despite prevailing global economic pressures.
The Fund projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 4.0 per cent in 2025 and 4.1 per cent in 2026. It also acknowledged progress in the banking sector, ongoing recapitalisation efforts and Nigeria’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list.
However, the IMF warned that several challenges continue to threaten economic gains. Inflation, which had been on a downward trajectory for more than a year, climbed to 15.4 per cent year-on-year in March 2026, driven largely by rising global fuel and food prices. It further observed that the consolidated fiscal deficit widened to 4.4 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025 as oil revenues failed to meet projections.
Executive Directors of the Fund praised Nigerian authorities for restoring a measure of economic stability but stressed that poverty and food insecurity remained pressing concerns requiring urgent attention. They advocated a neutral fiscal stance in 2026, sustained social protection programmes, expanded cash transfer initiatives for vulnerable households and improved fiscal transparency.
The IMF also advised the Central Bank of Nigeria to maintain a tight monetary policy stance until inflation is brought under control and to continue efforts towards adopting an inflation-targeting framework. It further recommended closer supervision of non-performing loans and stronger regulation of emerging financial technologies, including crypto assets.
In its response, the Federal Government pointed to a nearly 10 per cent increase in per capita income in 2025 as evidence that living standards were gradually improving. It highlighted interventions such as expanded cash transfer schemes, support for small and medium-sized enterprises, student loan programmes under the Nigerian Education Loan Fund, consumer credit initiatives and investments in the healthcare sector.
The government further cited agricultural interventions under the Renewed Hope National Agricultural Mechanisation Programme, aimed at boosting productivity, strengthening agricultural value chains and enhancing national food security. It also welcomed the IMF’s recognition of ongoing tax reforms, digitised revenue collection systems and improvements in public financial management.
Special Adviser to the President on Revenue, Taiwo Oyedele, stated that the administration had already begun implementing recommendations relating to fiscal reporting, budget transparency and reconciliation of government data.
Despite prevailing global uncertainties, including renewed tensions in the Middle East that continue to exert pressure on energy and food prices, the Federal Government expressed optimism about Nigeria’s economic outlook. It noted that rising energy prices could ultimately benefit the country through increased export earnings and foreign exchange inflows, particularly if ongoing efforts to boost crude oil production, expand domestic refining capacity and increase gas exports achieve their intended objectives.